1. Field of the Invention
The present invention is directed to a probabilistic reasoning expert system and, more particularly, to a software and hardware implementation of an expert system which bases conclusions on the mathematics of deductive and inductive reasoning using probability measures.
2. Description of the Related Art
Expert systems badly need a calculus for uncertainty propagation based on sound mathematical principles. Without a solid foundation for reasoning with uncertainty, there is little hope for using expert system technology to autonomously perform critical decision-making in military and commercial systems.
Advances based on computer system technology have made machinery able to perform nearly every task imaginable. Computer hardware technology has advanced to the point where computational speed and memory storage requirements no longer restrict the development of intelligent machinery. Computer software technology has superficially explored several facets of programming synthetic intelligence but has failed to advance far enough to spark the emergence of the era of intelligent machinery.
While computer use has become quite pervasive in the past few years, clear limitations on its applicability have appeared. For example, computers have had but limited success in the areas of image processing and process control. In an attempt to extend the usefulness of computers, the academic discipline of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has resorted to the construction of expert systems based on ad hoc rules. Extensive and exhaustive efforts have succeeded in producing a variety of tour de force systems. Using the fastest supercomputers (or else specialized hardware devices), AI systems have succeeded in playing chess at levels approaching that of master chess players. However, expert systems have not reached the level of sophistication and reliability necessary to carry out missions like sweeping for mines and controlling fighter airplanes. Nor have such systems been applied to control a manufacturing process. The most touted examples of expert systems have been in areas of medical diagnosis (MYCIN). Yet even there, use has been relegated to the role of a sometime consultant and no one would consider relying on them for a definitive diagnosis. Expert systems have had some successes in prospecting for minerals (PROSPECTOR), shipping computer system components (XCON or R1), and diagnosing faults in oil processing equipment (AL/X), but generally they are not sufficiently successful to entrust them with essential or vital functions. The lack of trust associated with the ad hoc expert systems results primarily from the fact that these systems can neither be validated nor verified. As a result, a natural barrier arises to using such software in military or human safety critical applications.